To achieve this analysis we applied the latest inundation modelling sourced from the Victorian Coastal Inundation Dataset (VCID) to determine the exposure of each individual asset to the above eight inundation scenarios. For example, the following image shows the inundation extent of a storm surge event occurring at a sea level rise of 47cm, and the impacted storm water pits within the CoPP as a result of an event such as this. This data enables the CoPP to know exactly which assets will be impacted to better prepare for these future events.
The project also included an assessment of the climate change in response to two climate scenarios, in terms of carbon emission projections (moderate and extreme), modelled for both 2030 and 2050 periods. Using the latest CSIRO climate data available, we downscaled the data to gain a deeper understanding of the likely climate changes, such as temperature and rainfall, specifically for the CoPP. By the year 2050, under even moderate future carbon emission scenarios, the latest CSIRO climate change projections suggest increases of 2.1°C and 1.8°C respectively in mean daily maximum temperatures in January and July, with increase of 1.4°C and 1.5°C respectively in mean daily minimum temperatures for these same months.
In addition to an increase in temperature, it’s expected that the frequency of warm days and heat wave events will also increase. The likely frequency of days over 35°C and 40°C has been identified to increase by 43% and 140% respectively by 2050 under even moderate future carbon emission scenarios. Similarly, the frequency of heat wave events comprising three or more consecutive days with a daily maximum temperature greater than 35°C, are expected to increase in frequency by 260% by 2050 under the same moderate future carbon emission scenario. The relationship between each asset type in terms of its anticipated sensitivity to, or the importance of, these climate related change parameters was determined.
With these types of climate changes expected for the CoPP, the first pass climate assessment conducted by Spatial Vision assists decision-making and allows CoPP to adequately prepare for asset damages likely to occur in the event of these scenarios.